If you only remember one chart from this site, make it this one. It shows the DOB rate (runners whose in-play low reached half their BSP or lower) for each starting price band, 9 Nov 2025 – 9 Nov 2026.
DOB rate by Betfair SP band
n=10,492
n=23,741
n=26,571
n=20,878
n=19,334
n=14,369
It's a U-shape. Runners priced 2.02–3.95 hit half their price 40.4% of the time (10,492 runners). The rate falls to 26.6% at 8.0–15.9, then climbs again, all the way to 43.6% for 100+ shots (14,369 runners).
The short end: mostly winners
At 2.02–3.95 a lot of the DOB rate comes from horses that simply won (winners nearly always trade at or near 1.01). Strip the winners out, which is what the blue bars do, and only 11.1% of beaten runners at 2.02–3.95 hit half their price. Favourites tell the same story: 39.0% of race favourites with a BSP of 2.02 or more hit half their price, but only 12.6% of beaten favourites did (7,478 beaten favourites). When a well-backed horse gets beaten, it usually never looked like winning long enough for its price to halve.
The long end: watch the small print
At 100+, 43.3% of beaten runners still traded at half their BSP. That looks dramatic, and part of it is real: a 150.0 shot that moves into contention can trade at 75.0. But part of it is how the data works. Betfair's in-play low only counts bets with a payout over £100, and at big prices that's a tiny stake. At 50.0, a £2.50 bet clears the bar. So a few small, scrappy trades in a thin in-running market are enough to register a “halving” for an outsider, and nobody trading meaningful money would necessarily have been matched there.
In other words, a high DOB rate for big outsiders tells you their prices are jumpy in-running. It doesn't tell you there was money to be had.
The middle: the hardest place to halve
Around 8.0–15.9, horses are usually neither strong fancies nor wild outsiders, and their prices halved least often. 19.2% of beaten runners in that band got there.
Why none of this is a recommendation
A higher hit rate in any band doesn't make that band “better” for dobbing. The price you'd actually get before the off isn't the BSP, liquidity at both ends of the market is very different, and the break-even maths is the same whatever the price. All this chart says is how often prices halved in the past.
By code
Each code has its own shape. Pick one on the trends page to see it by price band.
| Code | Races | Runners* | DOB | DOB rate | Losers that hit ½ | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 7,859 | 71,175 | 21,599 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 10.0% |
| Hurdle | 2,975 | 28,055 | 9,961 | 35.5% | 29.0% | 9.2% |
| Chase | 1,717 | 12,532 | 4,605 | 36.7% | 27.8% | 12.4% |
| Bumper | 397 | 3,623 | 1,362 | 37.6% | 30.8% | 9.9% |
*Runners with a BSP of 2.02 or more and a recorded in-play low. “Losers that hit ½” = share of beaten horses that still traded at half their BSP or lower. Rates are hidden under 30 runners. Click a heading to sort.
See also: What is dobbing? · Method FAQ
By The DoubleOrBust Team · Data 9 Nov 2025 – 9 Nov 2026, updated daily from Betfair's BSP files · How we count